The S&P 500 melt-up for TVC:SPX by without_worries

The above 10-day is fascinating. One way or another a significant move with the index shall occur by mid-August. No ifs no buts. Price action is approaching the apex. Resistance repeatedly tested until a ‘fake-out’ and then break-out resulting in a 30% rally.

Price action is now in a bearish rising wedge formation. Typically rising wedges breakdown. Can it break up? For sure. However it is improbable. Furthermore, look below at Stochastic RSI (circled in orange) now at 99 and on on a 10-day chart. Above 20 for 380 days! Look left, this rally is significantly overbought. There is no where left to go.

The question now is not will it go down or even when will it go down but rather how far will it go down.

“The Rising Wedge Breakdown” from Investorpidia:

“One thing experienced traders love about this pattern is that once the breakdown happens, the target is reached very quickly. Unlike other patterns, where a confirmation must be shown before a trade is taken, wedges often do not need confirmations; they normally break and drop fast to their targets. Targets are usually located at the beginning of the upper trendline,”…

If the above holds true we’ll see a correction of up to 46% – are you ready for that?!

The first support is the broken trend line at -24%.

What if the -46% does not hold support? Then a much deeper correction to 60% could occur. On the 2-month chart below there is significant support available from the 2007/8 highs where previous resistance has not yet been confirmed as support. This would be excellent structure for the market going forward were it to occur.

Action? A sell from 4500 is amazing if you can get it.

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