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BTC: 21.4k or lower? Seven-wave crash structure: Update for BITFINEX:BTCUSD by ianrdouglas

This chart is a bit complex. Anyone interested in exploring it might best use the “Make it Mine” function under “Share”.

1) The timing is guesswork, even with the Fibonacci time tool overlaid. The main point is that I still see these levels as being in play.

2) In terms of Wyckoff, I don’t think we’ve seen the Seller’s Climax ( SC ) yet. What I think we’ve seen, according to the seven-wave crash structure count, is Wave 5, roll up to Wave 6 (which includes an ABC Elliot corrective wave), and now BTC is printing the macro Wave 7.

3) The macro Wave 7 should come in below macro Wave 5, and repeats the entire seven-wave structure. It appears to me that sub-wave 1 and sub-wave 2 are in, and BTC is currently printing sub-wave 3, down to around 33.2, which also can be seen as the bottom of a channel, with the whole channel constituting a bear flag .

4) From Wave 3, I will be looking for a roll up to Wave 4, at around 37. From there, I would expect a key pivot point , and for BTC to break to the downside out of the channel, reaching between 27.2 and 22, to complete Wave 5. The reason sub-wave 5 is difficult to pinpoint precisely is we don’t know whether the macro Wave 5 will turn out to have landed, relative to the base, on the 0.702 or 0.786 Fibonacci of the whole seven-wave (Wave C of the ABC correction) movement. So the final macro Wave 7 could land anywhere between 21.4 and 16.9. Either one, or in-between.

5) The possible landing points for sub-wave 5 and sub-wave 6 are marked on the chart. If the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.786 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 5 will come in higher, at 25.6 most likely. If the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.702 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 5 will come in lower, at 22 most likely. Likewise, if the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.786 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 6 will come in higher, between 28.8 and 31.1. If the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.702 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 6 will come in lower, between 26 and 28.8.

6) Depending on where sub-wave 5 comes in, we might be able to better estimate which of these levels for the macro Wave 7 will be hit.

7) It’s also possible that none of this plays out: that the bottom of the channel is respected, and BTC is simply retesting that line. We really won’t know for sure until and if that channel is broken to the downside, after sub-wave 4 comes in.

8) That said, so far, from a fractal perspective and a Fibonacci sequencing perspective, I do think BTC has one major leg down still to complete. And I think this leg down will constitute the Seller’s Climax, from a Wyckoff Distribution Phase perspective.

9) It’s very possible that we see a subsequent retest of where macro Wave 7 lands, which would constitute a Secondary Test in Phase B of an emerging Wyckoff Accumulation Phase.

10) If Wyckoff’s Accumulation Schematic One turns out to characterise the subsequent accumulation phase, we could see a slightly deeper reach down beyond even that Secondary Test, which would constitute the “Spring” of Phase C in that schematic. That would be a month or two out from where we are.

Feel free to comment.

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