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S&P 500 – Path to 2400-2900 for CME_MINI:ES1! by bitdoctor

TLDR: 2-4 year outlook here. need some more time before making a full decision to go into bear mode.

We’ve been doing really well these last few months up until recently. Everybody making money. Euphoria. Now it’s time to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. We’ve been discussing this internally for a few days now and looking at levels of invalidation. Now that we’re here, this is what I’d like to report:

1. Looking at the yellow count, we have a 1-2 measurement projecting a wave 3 target at a high probability area os 3834. We hit 3959. To be fair, we were targeting 395-400 for a while.

2. The expanding diagonal was picture perfect for a wave 4. That doesn’t mean this has to be the count, but it looks decent right now.

3. There’s triple bearish divergence on the weekly here and it’s basically confirmed this week and last week with the downtrend that has started. The first point of the bearish divergence (the peak) was in 2018, followed by February of 2020, and now January 2021.

Do we go straight down from here? Nope. Does a bear market start here? I don’t like calling tops but so far it looks like it. I bought some equity yesterday and so far it’s not working well so I am going to take a step back and see what happens. Possibly shorting the rallys. I need to see more resolution here.

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